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Democrats adrift?

Public Interest - September 22, 2004

Continued from page 3.

But this may just be wishful thinking. To the extent that the flight of white men from the Democratic party reflects the lingering effects of the civil rights and women's rights movements, there is little that Democrats can or should do to reverse the tide. Racial and gender equality are the fundamental organizing principles of today's Democratic party and represent irreversible moral commitments on its part. Nor is the party likely to change its core position on abortion, although it could do more to signal that it welcomes a range of views on this subject. It could also relax its intransigent opposition to what many moderate voters see as reasonable limits on abortion. The exclusion of pro-life Democrat Bob Casey from the convention podium in 1992 continues to rankle many voters who are only moderately opposed to abortion, as does the party's stance on partial-birth abortion procedures.

The dynamics of the primary campaign in 2000 led Gore toward stances on gun control and gay rights that did not serve him well among most white male voters in the general election. If Democrats speak about gun control and gay rights in ways that imply that no decent and reasonable person could have a different view, voters who feel marginalized, even demonized, by such rhetoric are bound to retaliate.

The evidence so far suggests that John Kerry understands this. Also, the advocacy groups that have pressured prior Democratic nominees to adopt purist stances are backing off to maximize Kerry's chances of victory in November. This is, in part, a matter of rhetorical style. But substance matters as well. Kerry might well be able to appeal to both working-class white men and upscale professionals by focusing on the next generation of reform issues--government operations, the tax code, and health care--and by articulating bold positions in forceful, commonsense terms.

In addition, Democrats should develop a policy agenda that speaks to the interests of the still-forgotten middle class. The economic changes of the past generation have greatly improved the income and wealth of the upper middle class, and public policies such as welfare reform and an expanded Earned Income Tax Credit have begun to address the problems of the poor and near-poor. But while the rapid income gains of the second Clinton term were shared more broadly than at any time since the early 1970s, over the past two decades the middle class has continued to struggle under the burden of stagnant wages and incomes and the continued erosion of unionized employment, particularly in manufacturing--trends that have hit white men especially hard.

To address these problems, dramatic and credible policies are needed in areas such as job training and retraining, wage insurance, and benefits that continue through periods of unemployment. But since professionals may feel less attraction to these policies than do working-class voters, Democratic leaders must frame a case that gives professionals a material, as well as moral, stake in the future of working-class Americans.

For the foreseeable future, however, Democrats cannot hope to regain the position among white working-class men that they enjoyed in 1960, or even 1976, any more than Republicans can regain their standing as the party of Abraham Lincoln (or even Richard Nixon) among African Americans. While more nuanced stances on hot-button cultural issues may help, particularly when combined with progressive New Democrat positions on the role of government and the economic prospects of the middle class, Democrats are not likely to compete on equal terms in small towns and rural areas. There is no principled and practical way of stemming the flight of Georgia Senator Zell Miller and the people he represents from the Democratic party.

There is a reason why the Democratic party split so badly after 1968, and why the best thinkers and most skillful politicians have had such a hard time reunifying it. A new Democratic majority requires a coalition between upscale professionals and average workers. The problem is that these two groups do not understand their interests or their values in the same way. The upper middle class does not feel as vulnerable as do lower-middle-class workers and focuses more on "postmaterial" issues. In comparison with working-class voters, professionals typically care less about economically activist government and more about fiscal discipline; less about trade protection and more about global markets; less about job loss and more about the environment; less about security and more about opportunity; less about authority and traditional values, and more about "self-expression" and inclusion.

These are distinctions that make a difference. For example, West Virginia has long been one of the most reliably Democratic, working-class states in national elections. In 1992, Bill Clinton won 48 percent of the West Virginia vote (about 58 percent of the major party vote), and in 1996 he won 52 percent (slightly more than 58 percent of the major party vote). In 2000, however, the Bush campaign parlayed working-class resentments over trade, environmental regulation, energy policy, and cultural issues into a stunning 53-47 victory over Gore.

As many political analysts have observed, a political party in a two-party system inevitably represents a diverse coalition, not a full consensus on policy or ideology. And coalitions can practice distributive politics, giving each of their major constituent groups something about which they deeply care. But while parties can give different things to different groups, they cannot give contradictory things to those groups. When Bill Clinton assumed office in 1993, he was forced to choose between a policy of fiscal restraint that appealed to moderates and a policy of public investment backed by unions and other key interest groups. He chose the former (rightly, in my judgment). But he paid a huge price with the congressional wing of his party during the first two years of his presidency and then with the electorate in November 1994. Similarly, he was forced to choose between leading off his domestic policy with comprehensive health-care reform, as many traditional liberals were urging, or with welfare reform, as his New Democratic backers recommended. This time he opted to follow the liberals' advice, again with negative results for the party and with the electorate.

To hold a coalition together despite its internal differences, its members must agree on something that is at least as important to them as are the matters about which they disagree. A shared quest for political power is not enough. For an extended period, the commitment to tax cuts was enough to unite the otherwise fractious Republican coalition. No such unifying issue for Democrats has yet emerged. The deep antipathy most Democrats feel for President Bush and his principal advisors is generating a temporary suspension of internecine warfare and may be enough to yield victory in November. But afterward, suppressed differences are likely to emerge.

For example, the Democratic party is now divided between a peace faction and what the Progressive Policy Institute's Will Marshall has called "Blair Democrats." The moderate internationalists gathered around Kerry seem determined to see some version of the Iraq occupation through to a successful conclusion. This position, however, enjoys the support of a small and shrinking minority of Democrats and may prove unsustainable if instability in Iraq continues and costs and losses mount.

Another example: The centerpiece of Kerry's domestic agenda is a major overhaul of the nation's health care and health insurance, estimated to cost between $600 and $900 billion over the next decade. But Kerry has also endorsed a fiscal policy along the lines of the deficit reduction Clinton chose in preference to major new public investments. (Indeed, the complex and unpopular architecture of the Clinton health-care plan was designed to avoid placing new burdens on the federal budget.) It does not require prophetic inspiration to foresee a clash between health care and fiscal moderation early in a Kerry administration.

A new synthesis?

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